Love them or not, microtransactions have been a big part of the gaming industry for years and they don’t seem to be going anywhere anytime soon.
These in-game transactions come in multiple forms. Some game developers give you a serious in-game advantage when you pay for it, while others offer purely cosmetic changes for your money.
In early 2016, due to the Chinese Ministry of Culture’s loot box law, game developers were asked to show the content of the loot boxes and their odds. However in CS:GO, before and after this law came out, many players shared the proportions of the boxes they opened with us.
Valve has released an update for Counter-Strike: Global Offensive added a new item to player inventories in France in 2019. They called it The X-Ray Scanner. In France only, the X-ray Scanner allows each player to view a single box of loot before opening it. You can find official details about X-Ray Scanner by clicking here.
Odds & Experiment
The cost of CS:GO keys currently around $2.50 (If you buy them from the game itself. The price may change if you buy it from the community market)
According to Valve, the odds of a knife being roughly 1 in 400, this means that you would need to spend, on average, $1000 on keys to ‘guarantee’ a knife drop. This feels even more discouraging when you consider the level of knife or glove that matters more than that. Your chances of getting your cash’s worth are incredibly low.
Fortunately, we didn’t need to spend thousands of dollars to buy keys to calculate percentages ourselves (some players already did it for us).
Reddit user named “Shadowolf1212” opened 2023 cases and shared the odds with community. Here are the odds:
Total Cases: 2023
Blue: 1594 (78.79%)
Purple: 343 (16.96%)
Pink: 57 (2.82%)
Red: 20 (0.99%)
Knife: 9 (0.44%)
Another CS:GO player named “Crosscade” opened 347 cases. Here are the odds:
Total Cases: 347
Blue: 287 (78.80%)
Purple: 59 (16.20%)
Pink: 9 (2.50%)
Red: 6 (1.60%)
Knife: 3 (0.80%)
Of course, these numbers won’t be exact, but we believe that given this sample size, they should give a pretty good idea of the drop rarity and value.
As for the Stattrak, Shadowolf1212 recorded the numbers at the opening of 1619 cases, 146 of which were stattraks. The numbers show that an item in general has a roughly 9% chance of being stattrak despite being rare. It means, if we use the 0.44% raw data rate for the knives then there will be a 0.04% chance for a stattrak knives.
So, you have approximately 0.04% chance to hit the jackpot in CS:GO. it seems that your chance of winning in real money casino sites are much higher than in CS:GO by looking at these data. Think twice before spending hundreds of dollars on in-game cosmetics. You may lose much more than you would spend in casinos.
We hope you enjoyed the post. Have you opened any super rare gloves or knives? Let us know in the comments.